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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the 30 minute Aurora weather forecast?

Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for brief intervals. This is a short-term forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. This product is based on the OVATION model and provides a 30 to 90 minute forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora.

When to see Northern Lights in northern Minnesota?

SpaceWeather Live maintains a forecast for Aurora conditions expected over the next 72 hours. Times are in UTC, which must be converted to your local time zone. For the Central Time Zone UTC varies from local time by 5 or 6 hours (daylight or standard time). Once again, for Northern Minnesota you want a Kp of “5” or higher.

How did NOAA come up with the Aurora forecast?

In 2011, NOAA (NCEI and SWPC) developed a real-time version of the OVATION model to forecast the location and intensity of the aurora. Machol and Redmon (NCEI) developed the real-time ovation model. Viereck (SWPC) implemented the model and developed the graphical products to run in realtime to create aurora forecasts.

How long does it take for the Aurora to hit Earth?

This product is based on the OVATION model and provides a 30 to 90 minute forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth. The two maps show the North and South poles of Earth respectively.


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